The Rugby Historian

The men’s international rugby calendar kicks into full gear again this weekend, as six of the world’s top 10 teams battle to end their year on a high and put themselves in the best possible position in the rankings before the World Cup 2027 draw in December. In addition, the Rugby Europe Conference and Trophy continue to excite fans across Europe, with teams vying to move up the rankings and gain promotion to bigger challenges.

Rugby Europe Conference

The Rugby Europe Conference continues this weekend, as match week 6 sees Latvia host Norway, looking to bounce back from a surprise draw against Finland last weekend. The team from Riga had a chance to snatch a victory but missed a 73rd-minute penalty in a game which swung back and forth throughout. They must now work hard in their remaining matches to catch up with Finland and stand a chance to gain promotion to the Trophy next year. Norway, on the other hand, will look to put in a stronger display than two weeks ago, when they faced Luxembourg and lost 60-6. The Norwegians only won one game in last year’s tournament and will look to go one better this year. They lost 19-36 the last time these sides met in October 2024, but went into halftime level with their opponents, before fading in the second half.

Latvia have nothing to gain but plenty to lose from this fixture: a draw would see them fall six places to 69th, while a marginal loss would see them fall to 73rd, and a loss by more than 15 points, which is very unlikely, would see them slip all the way down to 77th. For Norway, claiming even a draw would be a significant achievement, while a victory would be a massive upset. Nevertheless, due to the sizable ranking point gaps between teams in the area of the rankings, the highest they could finish is 98th, even if they win by more than 15 points.

Rugby Europe Trophy

The second round of Rugby Europe Trophy matches features Croatia taking on Denmark, and Sweden facing off against Lithuania. Denmark will be out to get their first Rugby Europe Trophy campaign off to a positive start against opponents they have played five times before but never beaten, drawing once. The Danes gained promotion from the Conference with an unbeaten season last year and will hope that good form can carry over into the second tier of Rugby Europe competition. They enter the Trophy competition ranked 60th in the world, heights they have not reached since October 2008. Croatia come into the game on the back of a sizable loss against Sweden, going down 57-12 in Trelleborg last Saturday. Although they were not expected to win against a good Swedish side, they will hope to bounce back strongly this weekend as they aim to improve on their fourth-place finish in the table last season.

Similar to Latvia, Croatia cannot gain anything from the match but could end the weekend at 53rd place in the rankings, 12 places below their current spot. In fact, in the unlikely event of a Denmark win by more than 15 points, the teams would only be two places apart, with Denmark jumping five places to 55th and Croatia sliding to 53rd. A draw would result in a much smaller change in the rankings: Denmark would move to 58th, and Croatia would drop to 45th.

Keeping to the trend of higher-ranked teams playing at home against slightly weaker opposition, Sweden take on a Lithuanian side who were soundly beaten by last year’s Trophy winners, Poland, last weekend. The Swedish side is looking to build on their big win against Croatia and push towards qualification for the Rugby Europe Championship, which will be decided based on a two-year pool. As they finished second last year, four points behind Poland, they have a strong chance of progressing should they beat the Poles in April next year. Crucially, bonus points will be key to deciding who goes up, so they will be out to run up a score and ensure they match Poland’s bonus point win against the same opponents. Lithuania, on the other hand, will look to put in a stronger performance, having had a week to get back up to speed. Their true tests will come when they play the likes of Denmark and Croatia later in the tournament, with this weekend serving as a good opportunity to learn and build fitness for those clashes.

Lithuania will be handsomely rewarded should they cause a major upset, with the potential to jump to 44th place if they beat Sweden by more than 15 points. A win by a smaller margin would see them move up to 51st, while a draw would result in them climbing to 54th. For Sweden, the lowest they could drop to is 36th if they are handsomely beaten, but even a draw would see them slip three places to 33rd.

Autumn Nations Series

A key storyline of the Autumn International window comes into sharp focus this weekend, as the top teams in the world jostle for prime position before the 2027 World Cup draw on 3 December. As discussed last week, to avoid a tough group stage draw, teams need to finish as high as possible in the standings, preferably within the top six, to guarantee they don’t face two big guns in the first round of the World Cup. Indeed, England’s match against Australia could not have come at a better time, as the world’s fifth-ranked team hosts the world’s seventh-ranked team. Following last week’s narrow win in rainy conditions over Japan, Australia remain in a solid position to crack the top 6 come the end of their European tour, but needs a strong start to cement their place in pot 1 of the draw. They face an England team looking to bed down their best XV, with selections for multiple positions in the backline creating a lot of debate in the last week. The Wallabies would love to bag a win here before they take on Ireland and France in rounds 3 and 4 of the Nations series, while England will look to get up a head of steam before their round three clash against the All Blacks later this month. The game itself will serve as a chance for England to exact revenge on an Australian side that snatched victory with the last play of the game last year, whilst also sustaining the momentum they gathered during a strong Six Nations campaign and impressive June/July international window.

A win for the Wallabies would move them to 6th place, just inside pot 1, while a win by more than 15 points would see them leapfrog England and move up to 5th. Any win for England would move them up a spot to fourth and closer to either Ireland or New Zealand in third, who play each other in Chicago this weekend. Should the All Blacks beat the Irish by more than 15 points, and England do the same against the men from Down Under, they could see themselves within 0.4 points of Ireland in 3rd place come the end of the weekend.

Murrayfield will host the USA this weekend in one of the other Autumn Nations Series matches, as Scotland begin a pivotal run of games. The Scots will need to step up and show they can challenge those above them in rankings, following a par performance in the Six Nations and a loss against Fiji on their July tour, albeit without their star Lions players. This weekend serves as an opportunity for fringe players to stake their claim to be included against the All Blacks, as players plying their trade in England and France are ineligible for selection, and Gregor Townsend rests his key men for that daunting task. The USA will enter the match on a high, having qualified for the 2027 World Cup after beating Samoa in a playoff in September. The game serves as a free hit, with no chance of losing ranking points for a negative result, but significant gains can be made if they record a notable win or draw.

The Eagles could move up to 14th if they win on Saturday, while a draw or loss would move the Scots down to ninth. A win for the favourites would make no difference to the rankings but serve as a timely boost before the mammoth task of tackling the All Blacks a week later.

Internationals

Ireland and New Zealand lock horns in Chicago this weekend, returning to the scene of Ireland’s first win over the All Blacks in 2016. Since that historic clash on American soil, the teams have been inseparable, having played ten matches and won five each. The most recent game took place in last year’s Autumn Series, where New Zealand prevailed 23-13, following their World Cup quarterfinal win in 2023. While Ireland will have to hit the ground running this November, the All Blacks have been battle-tested, finishing second on points difference in the Rugby Championship, despite a record loss to the Springboks and a first away loss to Argentina. Despite not always putting their best foot forward, the New Zealanders remain a deadly force and can still beat anyone on their day. The Irish will look to bat away a growing consensus that their squad is getting too old and that a changing of the guard is needed before the 2027 World Cup. If they can stop the All Blacks’ pursuit of a Grand Slam right at the first hurdle, it should fuel their belief that they can provide similar heartache for Australia and South Africa later in the month.

A positive result for New Zealand would not move them up to first but would narrow the gap to the Springboks, given that South Africa can’t gain points from their match against Japan. An Irish win, however, would see them switch places with their opponents and move back into second spot on the rankings, a position they have held intermittently this year.

The last match in our preview pits the World Champion Springboks against an Eddie Jones-led Japan, at Wembley Stadium in London, a month after South Africa secured the Rugby Championship at Allianz Stadium (Twickenham) just down the road. A small degree of experimentation and rotation has been employed by Springboks coach Rassie Erasmus for the encounter as he tries to keep his squad fresh for a long, five-match tour, whilst at the same time trying new combinations with an eye on the next World Cup. The men from Japan will look to channel the spirit of their last match against South Africa in England, when they sensationally beat them 34-32 in Brighton. Both teams have come a long way since then, although the same man will be in the Japanese dugout, with Eddie Jones once again leading the Brave Blossoms towards a World Cup campaign. He will try to be as disruptive as possible and test the Springboks defence with lighting quick attacks, while hoping his team’s set piece can stand up against the onslaught of the South African pack.

Should the Japanese manage to pull off another historic upset, they would catapult themselves into 11th, moving from pot 3 to pot 2 for the World Cup draw in December. An embarrassing defeat by more than 15 points for the South Africans would see them drop to third.