The Rugby Historian

The brief period between the end of the Rugby Championship and the start of the Autumn Internationals window is relatively quiet, but the matches we do have are full of intrigue. This week we have two matches: the second leg of the World Cup qualifying match between Brazil and Paraguay, and a Rugby Europe conference clash between Norway and Luxembourg. The women’s internationals only return in the middle of November, so we will stick to the men’s side of the rugby world today.

Rugby World Cup qualifying

Last weekend was momentous for Paraguay, as they beat Brazil 39-19 at the Estadio Héroes de Curupayty in Asunción. Heading into the match, Los Yacarés, the Alligators, were ranked ten spots below Brazil. They were not expected to upset their South American opponents, as the Brazilians had won their previous encounter 77-17 in August 2024, but emerged from the battle with a 20-point cushion heading into the second leg. For Brazil, failure to progress to the repechage tournament in November will be a bitter disappointment, having played well in defeat against Chile in the previous round of qualifying. Neither side have qualified for the World Cup before and both will be desperate to take the next step towards that goal this weekend. The implications for the rankings are large: if there is a repeat of last weekend’s score, Paraguay will leapfrog Brazil and move into 30th spot on the rankings, while the Brazilians would drop to three places to 33rd. A victory margin of less than 16 points would still see the sides trade places in the pecking order, with Brazil dropping two spots to 32nd and Paraguay rising to 31st. A win by any margin for Brazil would see them climb to 29th but would not guarantee a spot in the repechage tournament, as they need to overturn a 20-point deficit from the first leg to progress.

Rugby Europe Conference

Norway and Luxembourg start their Rugby Europe Conference campaigns this weekend, with a large gap in the rankings making this a classic David vs Goliath clash. The men from Luxembourg are ranked 44 places above their opponents, and are eyeing a strong run in this year’s competition as they aim to return to the Rugby Europe Trophy after enduring relegation last season. Norway will go into the match knowing a victory would be a big upset, and will look to get some miles into their legs before they play against opponents closer to them in rankings. They will aim to improve on last year’s Rugby Europe Conference performance, when they only won one match, against Estonia. The last time these teams met, in 2018, it was a relatively close affair, with Luxembourg, ranked 63rd at the time, emerging as 35-16 victors. The Norwegians will have nothing to lose in this match: a win or draw will see them climb the rankings, while a loss will have no bearing on their position or ranking points. An unlikely runaway win for Norway would see them climb to 97th, while a close one would bump them up two places to 98th. A draw would see them rise to 99th. For Luxembourg, a big loss would be disastrous, seeing them slip from 56th to 63rd. A small loss would only see them fall to 59th, while a draw would result in them dropping one place to 57th. For a team looking to bounce straight back up to the Rugby Europe Trophy, this is a must-win as they look to beat the bigger fish in their pool later in the tournament.

The relative calm of this weekend’s fixture list will give way to a crowded scene in seven days’ time, with five fixtures on the menu. Australia play Japan in Tokyo, kicking off their extensive end of year schedule, while there are two more games in the Rugby Europe Conference, and the Rugby Europe Trophy commences with two matches, as teams seek promotion to the Rugby Europe Championship. We will have a look at all those games next week, see you then!

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