The Rugby Historian

After another exciting week of international rugby, where teams in the Pacific Nations Cup, Rugby Championship and Women’s Rugby World Cup all contributed to a feast of high class games, the Men’s World number one changed hands again, the four semifinalists of the Women’s Rugby World Cup were confirmed and Japan and Fiji booked their places in the Pacific Nations Cup final. On top of that, the USA men’s team confirmed their spot in the 2027 World Cup by beating Samoa 29-13, and moving up three spots to 16th. This week, we have a final and third-place playoff in the Pacific Nations Cup, a mouthwatering set of Women’s Rugby World Cup semifinals, and the first leg of another Men’s World Cup qualifying playoff between Samoa and Chile.

Women’s rankings

First up is a look at the World Cup taking place in England, and the two semifinals being played in Bristol at the Ashton Gate stadium:

• New Zealand (ranked 3rd) vs Canada (2nd)
• France (4th) vs England (1st)

The first semifinal will see the defending champions, New Zealand, lock horns with the dark horses of the tournament, Canada, who have glided through this tournament but now face their most daunting task to date. The women from North America eased past Australia, scoring seven tries and notching their fourth consecutive game of scoring more than 40 points. The Black Ferns also boast that record of 40-plus games, but were made to work hard for their win against the Springbok Women, heading into the break at 10-all before pulling away and winning the match 46-17. The New Zealanders will be without Jorja Miller, arguably their star player of the tournament so far, who suffered an undisclosed injury this week and leaves a sizable hole to fill for Kennedy Tukuafu.

The two teams sit side-by-side on the rankings list, meaning there is a lot of opportunity for change come the end of the weekend. The Canadians can not, however, move to number one in the world except if they beat the Black Ferns by more than 15 points and the French do the same to the Red Roses in the second semifinal, a turn of events which would certainly upset the applecart. On the other hand, New Zealand will move to second with a victory by any margin, remain in third with a draw, and only drop a place if they lose by more than 15 points.

	New Zealand (3rd)		Canada (2nd)
Outcome	▲ Ranking	▲ Points	▲ Ranking	▲ Points
New Zealand wins by 15+	1↑	+2.51	1↓	-2.51
New Zealand wins by 1-15	1↑	+1.67	1↓	-1.67
Draw	–	-0.33	–	+0.33
Canada wins by 1-15	–	-2.33	–	+2.33
Canada wins by 15+	1↓	-3.49	–	+3.49

The Red Roses kept rolling with a comfortable if unspectacular win against Scotland, as the two Six Nations teams battled wet conditions in Bristol. They extended their winning streak to 31 games, a new record for them, with their last defeat coming in the World Cup final three years ago against the Black Ferns. For the Scots, this quarterfinal appearance represented great progress after failing to advance from the pool stage in 2022 and not playing in the 2014 or 2017 editions of the World Cup. 

France had to work much harder for their 18-13 victory over Ireland in the tensest quarterfinal of the weekend. The French fought against the wind in the first half and went into the break 0-13 down, but they bounced back well and scored two tries in trying conditions to book their place in a seventh consecutive World Cup semifinal. The Irish dominated the first half but failed to capitalise fully on a favourable wind, only scoring two unconverted tries.

As always, England has nothing to gain from winning this match, rankings-wise. However, a win by more than 15 points for France would move the French team to second and close the gap to England to just 1.34 rankings points. A win by 15 or less moves them up to third, while a draw or an English win keeps the rankings unchanged.

	France (4th)		England (1st)
Outcome	▲ Ranking	▲ Points	▲ Ranking	▲ Points
France wins by 15+	2↑	+5.50	–	-5.50
France wins by 1-15	1↑	+3.67	–	-3.67
Draw	–	+1.67	–	-1.67
England wins by 1-15	–	-0.33	–	+0.33
England wins by 15+	–	-0.50	–	+0.50

Men’s Rankings

The Rugby Championship takes a break this weekend, so all eyes will be on the Pacific Nations Cup, which comes to an end this weekend. In addition, the first leg of the World Cup playoff match between Samoa and Chile will take place in the United States. The list of fixtures is:

The Pacific Nations Cup:

• Tonga (19th) vs Canada (24th) – 3rd place playoff
• Japan (13th) vs Fiji (9th) – Final

World Cup qualifying:

• Samoa (15th) vs Chile (20th) 

Pacific Nations Cup permutations

The third-place playoff sees Tonga and Canada look for a strong comeback, having been soundly beaten by Japan and Fiji, respectively. Both teams shipped over 60 points last weekend, and will hope to put in a stronger display as they look to end their tournaments on a high. A bronze medal for either team would be seen as great progress, as they finished in the bottom two in last year’s competition. The Canadians have finished as runners-up and in 3rd place only once, while Tonga last finished as runners-up in 2018.

A win for Canada would see them move up two places to 22nd, while a draw would bump them up one place. The Tongans would slip to 20th with a loss, while a victory by any margin would see them retain their current spot of 19th.

	Tonga (19th)		Canada (24th)
Outcome	▲ Ranking	▲ Points	▲ Ranking	▲ Points
Tonga wins by 15+	–	+0.03	–	-0.03
Tonga wins by 1-15	–	+0.02	–	-0.02
Draw	–	-0.09	1↑	+0.98
Canada wins by 1-15	1↓	-1.98	2↑	+1.98
Canada wins by 15+	1↓	-2.97	2↑	+2.97

After a slow start to the tournament, Fiji exploded past Canada in their semifinal, scoring nine tries despite Mesake Doge receiving a red card late in the first half. Victory on Saturday would take them to seven championship wins, three ahead of Samoa in second place with four titles. The Flying Fijians will be looking to build on a strong run of form in 2025 and boost their confidence before trying fixtures against England and France in the Autumn Internationals later this year.

Japan will be out for revenge as they seek to reclaim the title they last won in 2019, when the tournament was still played in a purely round robin format. The 41-17 loss last year against the same opponents at home will have stung, and Eddie Jones will be keen for a spirited and professional performance as he continues to improve his charges for the next World Cup. 

With a win, the Brave Blossoms will move up to 11th, while a draw will see them climb one spot to twelfth. Fiji can only move up to 8th if they put in a masterclass and beat the Japanese by more than 15 points, which they did in last year’s final in a convincing win. This result would see them move into the top 8 of the world rankings for the first time since October 2023.

	Japan (13th)		Fiji (9th)
Outcome	▲ Ranking	▲ Points	▲ Ranking	▲ Points
Japan wins by 15+	2↑	+2.09	–	-2.09
Japan wins by 1-15	2↑	+1.39	–	-1.39
Draw	1↑	+0.39	–	-0.39
Fiji wins by 1-15	–	-0.61	–	+0.61
Fiji wins by 15+	–	-0.91	1↑	+0.91

World Cup qualifying

Rankings will be the last thing on either team’s mind when Samoa and Chile clash this weekend in the first leg of their World Cup qualifying match. The sides enter the game in a similar set of circumstances: Chile narrowly won their last game against Uruguay but failed to secure an automatic qualification spot for the World Cup, while Samoa were beaten convincingly by the USA to deny them safe passage through to the showpiece event in 2027. A two-legged playoff now awaits, with the return leg being played in Chile next weekend, the victor being the team with the most points over the two legs. The loser will, remarkably, have another shot at qualification, as they enter the Final Qualification Tournament held in Dubai in November this year.

Although the rankings will be at the back of their minds, a lot is at stake for both teams. If Chile wins, they will move up in the rankings, either by two spots with a tight victory or by four for a win by more than 15 points. A win of that magnitude would not only set them on their way for World Cup qualification but would also mean Samoa slide four places to 20th, while they themselves jump all the way to 16th. These would be historic rankings for both teams, representing the highest Chile has ever been and the lowest Samoa has ever fallen. A win for Samoa, on the other hand, will see them climb back to 14th and keep Chile in 20th.

	Samoa (15th)		Chile (20th)
Outcome	▲ Ranking	▲ Points	▲ Ranking	▲ Points
Samoa wins by 15+	1↑	+0.43	–	-0.43
Samoa wins by 1-15	1↑	+0.29	–	-0.29
Draw	–	-0.71	–	+0.71
Chile wins by 1-15	1↓	-1.71	2↑	+1.71
Chile wins by 15+	5↓	-2.57	4↑	+2.57

A smaller set of fixtures this weekend is no less exciting, with World Cup qualification on the Men’s side and blockbuster World Cup semifinals on the Women’s side ensuring rugby fans will be mightily entertained from Friday until Sunday. A few upsets on the Women’s side would be nothing but a plus to keep the game growing, while a win for Chile would break new ground for a team on the up. We will reconvene next week, when the Rugby Championship is back and the Women’s World Cup final is finally here.