As discussed in a previous blog, the World Rugby Rankings are a source of consistent intrigue and jeopardy, with positions on the global ranking tree often swapping hands week-to-week as the game’s biggest and smallest nations duel for glory. To better document the drama the rankings serve up, the Rugby Historian is launching a weekly rankings watch, where the upcoming weekend’s fixtures and their possible implications for the rankings are discussed. Excitingly, the women’s rugby rankings will be spotlighted too, thereby closing a gap in our coverage that was long overdue.
Accompanying the weekly Rugby Rankings Watch is a rugby world rankings simulator app, where rugby fans can simulate results for the weekend’s upcoming fixtures and see how the rankings could change. The website uses World Rugby’s official formula, which is explained in depth on the governing body’s website and summed up briefly in our most recent blog. The crux of the formula is that there are five outcomes per match which affect the rankings: the home team wins by more than 15 points, the home team wins by 15 or fewer points, a draw, and the away side wins by more than 15 points, or 15 points or less. Although the method is not explicitly stated on their website, World Rugby determines who the home team is during a World Cup to allow the formula to work correctly even at a neutral venue. Also, the system works on a points-exchange system, meaning the ranking points gained by one team are lost by the other. When discussing upcoming fixtures, these five outcomes and the amount of points lost will be referenced continuously, aligning with the functionality of the site.
Women’s rankings
We start with the women’s game, where an exciting and high-scoring Rugby World Cup enters its quarterfinals stage. The four fixtures this weekend are:
- New Zealand (ranked 3rd) vs South Africa (10th)
- Canada (2nd) vs Australia (7th)
- France (4th) vs Ireland (5th)
- England (1st) vs Scotland (6th)
The third quarterfinal between France and Ireland is the most difficult to call, with one place on the rankings separating the sides. The French are fresh off an unbeaten pool stage, notching convincing wins against Italy, Brazil and most recently an in-form South Africa team, beating their Southern Hemisphere opponents 57-10. The return of Pauline Bourdon Sansus for their last two fixtures has lifted the French, and they enter the upcoming clash confident of progression. Ireland, on the other hand, suffered a surprisingly heavy defeat against New Zealand in their last outing, losing 40-0 in Brighton. Conceding against the Black Ferns is inevitable, but not scoring a single point in reply will be worrying for Scott Bemand’s side. The team’s last meeting was in March this year, with France prevailing 27-15 in the opening round of the Women’s Six Nations in a hard-fought encounter.
The large gap in points, 7.03, between France and Ireland means that any win for the French will leave both teams in precisely the same position and with the same points as before. A draw will keep the sides in the same rankings by closing the gap to 3 points, while a win by 15 points or less for Ireland will see them gain 4.01 points, and a win by more than 15 points will see them gain 6 points. France, of course, would lose 4.01 and 6 points in those cases, respectively.
| France (4th) | Ireland (5th) | |||
| Outcome | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points |
| France wins by 15+ | – | – | – | – |
| France wins by 1-15 | – | – | – | – |
| Draw | – | -2.01 | – | +2.01 |
| Ireland wins by 1-15 | 1↓ | -4.01 | 1↑ | +4.01 |
| Ireland wins by 15+ | 1↓ | -6.00 | 1↑ | +6.00 |
France’s pool mates, South Africa, face a much more daunting task in their first-ever quarterfinal, fronting up against a New Zealand buoyed by a flawless run of pool stage matches. The Springbok Women narrowly defeated Italy in Gameweek 2 to progress to this stage of the competition. They rested several key players for the final pool match, keeping their powder dry for the massive task of playing against the back-to-back defending World Champions. The Black Ferns scored an impressive 24 tries, conceded only 27 points over their three pool stage matches, and are overwhelming favourites to progress to the semi-finals.
As with the France and Ireland match, New Zealand stands to gain nothing from the encounter rankings-wise, while South Africa would be handsomely rewarded for any positive result, even an unlikely draw netting them 4.03 points. A win of any margin would secure them the maximum number of points, which during a World Cup is 6, propelling them up to an all-time high of 6th in the rankings while sinking New Zealand to 4th.
| New Zealand (3rd) | South Africa (10th) | |||
| Outcome | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points |
| New Zealand wins by 15+ | – | – | – | – |
| New Zealand wins by 1-15 | – | – | – | – |
| Draw | 1↓ | -4.03 | 3↑ | +4.03 |
| South Africa wins by 1-15 | 1↓ | -6.00 | 4↑ | +6.00 |
| South Africa wins by 15+ | 1↓ | -6.00 | 4↑ | +6.00 |
The other side of the draw follows a similar pattern: wins for the favourites, Canada and England, would leave the rankings and points for all four teams unchanged, while upsets for Australia and Scotland would boost their position significantly due to near maximum points gained for any type of win. Should Scotland win, by any margin, or draw their match against the Red Roses, they would climb one position to 5th, while England’s lead over Canada in ranking points means they will finish at the top of the rankings at the end of the weekend, whatever happens.
| England (1st) | Scotland (6th) | |||
| Outcome | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points |
| England wins by 15+ | – | – | – | – |
| England wins by 1-15 | – | – | – | – |
| Draw | – | -4.67 | 1↑ | +4.67 |
| Scotland wins by 1-15 | – | -6.00 | 1↑ | +6.00 |
| Scotland wins by 15+ | – | -6.00 | 1↑ | +6.00 |
Conversely, a shock loss for Canada would have significant consequences, dropping them to fourth, one place above the Wallaroos, who would climb two places to fifth. A draw would be less costly, dropping Canada one spot to third, while Australia would still climb up to fifth.
| Canada (2nd) | Australia (7th) | |||
| Outcome | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points |
| Canada wins by 15+ | – | – | – | – |
| Canada wins by 1-15 | – | – | – | – |
| Draw | 1↓ | -3.53 | 2↑ | +3.53 |
| Australia wins by 1-15 | 2↓ | -5.53 | 2↑ | +5.53 |
| Australia wins by 15+ | 2↓ | -6.00 | 2↑ | +6.00 |
A crucial point is that these potential ranking changes have been discussed in isolation, without considering how results in other matches could affect the final rankings at the end of the weekend. There is a crazy, parallel universe where all the lower-ranked teams win by more than 15 points, resulting in the World Rankings looking like this:
Image captured from the rankings simulator app. Find it here.
The likeliest outcome is that the rankings stay precisely as they are, with no changes in position or ranking points. We will probably have to wait until the weekend of the semifinals to see movement on the table, when the competition favourites duke it out for a spot in the final.
The rankings will probably look like this by the 15th of September:
Men’s Rankings
Two competitions are currently being contested on the men’s side of the rugby rankings: the Rugby Championship and the Pacific Nations Cup. The former’s contestants are all within the top 7 of the rankings, while the latter’s participants have rankings ranging from 10th, Fiji, to 24th, Canada. The outcomes of the matches in these two competitions will thus not affect each other, so we will discuss them separately. The list of fixtures is:
The Rugby Championship:
- New Zealand (ranked 1st) vs South Africa (2nd)
- Australia (6th) vs Argentina (7th)
The Pacific Nations Cup:
- Fiji (9th) vs Canada (24th) – Semifinal
- Tonga (17th) vs Japan (13th) – Semifinal
- Samoa (14th) vs USA (18th) – 5th place playoff
Rugby Championship permutations:
The Rugby Championship has been extremely tight. Each team has won at least once, and the last four matches have been won by an average of just over 6 points. Two separate battles are playing out in the rankings, with the Springboks and the All Blacks fighting to be the World number 1. Australia and Argentina are less than two ranking points apart in 6th and 7th, trying to close the gap to England in fifth place before they face the English on their Northern Hemisphere tours later in the year.
New Zealand come into this week’s clash with South Africa on the back of a tight and impressive win at Eden Park, where they withstood late Springboks pressure to grind out a win. The All Blacks will look to cement their position at the top of the Rugby Championship log and the World rankings with a win in Wellington, while South Africa will look to reclaim the number 1 ranking they lost after the first round of fixtures. The Springboks have a much better record in Wellington than at Eden Park, having won four and drawn one of their 13 matches played there against the All Blacks. In fact, Wellington is the only venue where South Africa has avoided defeat in New Zealand since 2009, when they won in Hamilton. They hope they can rekindle the form that saw them win 36-34 there in 2018.
A win of any kind would do for the South Africans, allowing them to leapfrog Ireland and the All Blacks into top spot; a draw would move them one spot into second. New Zealand must just avoid defeat to remain atop the tree, but a loss by more than 15 points would move them down into 3rd.
| New Zealand (1st) | South Africa (3rd) | |||
| Outcome | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points |
| New Zealand wins by 15+ | – | +0.75 | – | -0.75 |
| New Zealand wins by 1-15 | – | +0.50 | – | -0.50 |
| Draw | – | -0.50 | 1↑ | +0.50 |
| South Africa wins by 1-15 | 1↓ | -1.50 | 2↑ | +1.50 |
| South Africa wins by 15+ | 2↓ | -2.25 | 2↑ | +2.25 |
The match between the Wallabies and Los Pumas last week was a sight to behold. Both teams played exciting rugby and pushed each other all the way, with the Aussies winning with the last play of the match, long after the clock had ticked past 80 minutes. Their rivalry has blossomed in a highly competitive fixture, with Argentina winning three of the last five encounters after having only won four and drawn two of the 20 matches before that.
The men from South America just require a win to move into 6th, a position they lost in July. A win by more than 15 points would catapult Los Pumas into a 2.1 point gap over the Wallabies, and move them within striking distance of England in 5th. Australia needs to ward off defeat to remain in 6th, and a handsome victory would give them breathing room and open a 3.9-point gap to their Argentine rivals.
| Australia (6th) | Argentina (7th) | |||
| Outcome | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points |
| Australia wins by 15+ | – | +0.67 | – | -0.67 |
| Australia wins by 1-15 | – | +0.44 | – | -0.44 |
| Draw | – | -0.56 | – | +0.56 |
| Argentina wins by 1-15 | 1↓ | -1.56 | 1↑ | +1.56 |
| Argentina wins by 15+ | 1↓ | -2.33 | 1↑ | +2.33 |
Pacific Nations Cup permutations
Fiji and Canada will contest the first semifinal of this year’s Pacific Nations Cup, with the Fijians coming into the clash as heavy favourites after an unbeaten pool stage, beating Tonga and Samoa. They are the highest-ranked team in the competition, and will be aiming to lift the trophy for a seventh time come the final on the 20th of September. The Canadian team have already reached their goals for this tournament, securing automatic qualification for the 2027 World Cup in Australia; a surprise win would be a huge bonus.
The Fijians cannot gain anything from the fixture in terms of rankings, due to the large gap in points and positions. Canada would move up two places if they win or draw, with the unlikely outcome of a Canadian win resulting in the maximum three points gained and a jump up to 22nd in the rankings.
| Fiji (9th) | Canada (24th) | |||
| Outcome | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points |
| Fiji wins by 15+ | – | – | – | – |
| Fiji wins by 1-15 | – | – | – | – |
| Draw | – | -2.43 | 2↑ | +2.43 |
| Canada wins by 1-15 | 1↓ | -3.00 | 2↑ | +3.00 |
| Canada wins by 15+ | 1↓ | -3.00 | 2↑ | +3.00 |
Japan face Tonga in the other semifinal, and although they are only separated by four places on the rankings, the Brave Blossoms are expected to reach the final. Tonga have secured their spot at the 2027 World Cup, but a win against their more favoured opponents would be a huge coup and only their second win in their last six outings. The Japanese have beaten Tonga in both their previous encounters, with the last match coming in 2023.
As Tonga have been designated as the home team, any victory for them would not result in as big a swing in points as it might have had they been deemed the away side. Nevertheless, should they win by more than 15 points, they would gain +2.03 points, a healthy return but not enough to move them higher in the rankings. Japan, however, would jump up one spot and above Wales if they won by more than 15 points, gaining 0.97 points, while Tonga would slip two spots to 18th.
| Tonga (16th) | Japan (13th) | |||
| Outcome | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points |
| Tonga wins by 15+ | – | +2.03 | – | -2.03 |
| Tonga wins by 1-15 | – | +1.35 | – | -1.35 |
| Draw | – | +0.35 | – | -0.35 |
| Japan wins by 1-15 | 2↓ | -0.65 | – | +0.65 |
| Japan wins by 15+ | 2↓ | -0.97 | 1↑ | +0.97 |
The most consequential game on the men’s calendar this weekend is between Samoa and the USA. The winner will book an automatic spot at the 2027 World Cup, while the loser will have to go through a playoff round. Samoa enter the contest as favourites based on ranking, five spots above the USA, but as the North American team will be playing at home in Colorado. The teams have played twice before, with one win apiece, and recent form sees both teams on a two-game losing streak.
The USA would leapfrog Samoa and rise four places to 15th if they win by more than 15 points, while a win by a smaller margin would mean they rise to 16th and Samoa only drop one spot to 15th. A draw or any Samoa win will leave the rankings unchanged.
| Samoa (14th) | USA (19th) | |||
| Outcome | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points | ▲ Ranking | ▲ Points |
| Samoa wins by 15+ | – | +0.28 | – | -0.28 |
| Samoa wins by 1-15 | – | +0.18 | – | -0.18 |
| Draw | – | -0.82 | – | +0.82 |
| USA wins by 1-15 | 1↓ | -1.82 | 3↑ | +1.82 |
| USA wins by 15+ | 2↓ | -2.72 | 4↑ | +2.72 |
If the favourites, in terms of rankings, were all to win but by less than 16 points, the table would look as follows come next week:
The glaring error here is that Tonga was chosen as the home team at a neutral venue. They will be harshly penalised for a loss, even though they ended the pool stage in second place and should have been drawn as a way team against pool winners Japan. In any case, the fixtures will once again make for fascinating viewing, with the straight shootout for World Cup qualification between Samoa and the USA being a highlight. On the women’s side, a straight forward looking weekend for the favourites could be upset if Ireland bring their A-game and upset a France team steadily growing into the tournament. Whatever happens, we will be back here next week to see how the actual results have shifted the rankings, and what the next round of clashes could do to further disrupt them
The Rugby Historian 
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